Poisson DistributionFor Football Prop Bets
In their bid to beat bookies, bettors have long used statistical analysis to predict sporting events outcomes. In this regard, a popular analytical tool among bettors is the Poisson distribution. Next, we will show you the usefulness and limitations of this statistical method in football prop bets.
What Is A Poisson Distribution?
A Poisson distribution is a statistical method that measures the probability of unrelated events. These events must occur within a specific period. Together with historical sports data, the Poisson distribution can help us estimate a sporting event's most likely outcome. This fact turns the Poisson distribution into a betting strategy's important part.
What Are Prop Bets?
One of the most interesting forms of betting in the sports world is the so-called prop bets. They are a different betting way as they are not directly related to a match's outcome. Prop bets are set towards a specific action in a match. That is, you bet on any game-related action or a player or team's recordable statistics. For example, we can place prop bets on actions such as interceptions, tackles, quarterback sacks, and field goals. For example:
- Successful Field Goals - Total
- Over 3.5 -150. With 4 or more successful field goals, you win the bet
- Under 3.5 +200. With 3 or less successful field goals, you win the bet
- Conditions for applying the Poisson distribution to football prop bets
The Poisson distribution has been widely used in NFL and NCAA football betting. However, it is important to ensure that each bet meets the following criteria:
- The chance of an event happening has to be great. For example, the chance of an interception occurring relies on the total number of passes expected during that match. Since the two quarterbacks involved in a game can throw more than 80 passes, there is a good chance of an interception occurring.
- The event occurs a small number of times. We can see 0 to 3 interceptions per game within a universe of 80 passes or more. So, the number of interceptions is low concerning the number of passes.
- The occurrence of each event must happen one by one. That is, two interceptions or two field goals never occur at the same time. Actions such as interceptions, sacks, or field goals happen one at a time.
- Each occurrence must be independent and random. That is, in theory, the occurrence of an event is not related to the previous event.
Besides, you must bear in mind that strategies involving the Poisson distribution require advanced mathematics knowledge. In this sense, you'll need to solve some relatively complicated equations. So, not everyone gets to use the Poisson distribution. This statistical tool does not consider elements such as player injuries, low team morale, climatic changes, and players' errors. However, you must remind that these factors affect a match's outcome. Sports bettors often have a hard time finding value in betting. But, the use of statistical analysis tools can help you find valuable bets and win the bookies.Tags :
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